Things to do When Predicting The Future

We used to predict the future using the math of risk management. Kevin Dowd and Martin Hutchinson in the 'Alchemist of Loss" put some caveat before doing predictions:-

1. Future is uncertain and always will be. Therefore we need to bare in our mind that we are not able to up to 100% certainty in predicting the future. Any rating given by any agency is a mere past performance record, therefore attached to the rating is other information which required for further analysis.
2. Not to rely only to one quantifiable measurement. We need to have more than one analyses in order to be more prudence. They stated that a multiple "litmus test" approach for some particularly recalcitrant risk problems.
3. Prudence principle should be implemented. The prudence toward safety side.